This paper studies the macroeconomic implications of oil price shocks and the extant fuel subsidy regime for Nigeria. To do this, we develop and estimate a New-Keynesian DSGE model that accounts for pass-through effect of international oil price into the retail price of fuel. Our results show...

The estimation of inflation volatility is important to central banks as it guides their policy initiatives for achieving and maintaining price stability. This paper employs three models from the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) family with a view to providing a...

This paper investigates the size and adjustment pattern of the interest rate pass-through (IRPT) between the policy-controlled interest rate (MPR) and seven (7) retail interest rates (lending and deposit rates) in Nigeria. This study departs from previous studies on Nigeria in the sense that it...

Currency crises inflict significant social and economic costs on economies that have suffered its occurrence. Thus, statistical models have been developed over the years to construct reliable early warning systems as part of strategies for preventing or reducing the devastating effects of such...

Effective central bank communication is useful for anchoring market expectations and enhancing macroeconomic stability. In this paper, the communication strategy of the Bank of Ghana (BOG) is analysed using BOG’s monetary policy committee press releases for the period 2018-2019. Specifically,...

Starting from Obaseki (1998), several authors have developed different models of Naira equilibrium real exchange rate in a bid to better understand its behavior, albeit without accounting for the possibility and effects of structural breaks in their models. This is counterintuitive, especially...

The paper examines the nexus between Nigeria’s foreign reserves and economic growth. Analysis of the data from 2000:Q1 - 2013:Q2, using the modified Wald statistic of Toda and Yamamoto (1995) confirms a unidirectional causality running from external reserves to economic growth. The Gregory and...

This paper develops a two-agent New Keynesian model, which is suitable for identifying the drivers of business cycle fluctuations in small open, resource-rich, resource-dependent emerging economies. We confront the model with Nigerian data on eleven macro-economic variables using the Bayesian...

This paper constructs an early warning system (EWS) for currency crises in Nigeria based on selected key macroeconomic indicators. It estimates the probabilities of currency crises as a logistic function of the included variables within the framework of a logit model. Particularly, the extent to...

Policy makers are generally interested in knowing the degree of real exchange rate (RER) misalignment because of its connection to currency crises and other external sector imbalances. In Nigeria, the Naira-US Dollar RER appreciated by 81.3 per cent between 2000 and 2008 and depreciated...