Agrochemicals are crucial for modern agriculture, but improper use can cause nonpoint source pollution (NPS), harming water quality and health. Despite recognizing agriculture as a major NPS contributor, policies lag in addressing it. Current literature identifies three main approaches to...

Models for a continuous risk outcome has a wide application in portfolio risk management and capital allocation. We introduce a family of interval distributions based on variable transformations. Densities for these distributions are provided. Models with a random effect, targeting a continuous...

The purpose of this paper is to present a new approach to model capacity constraints in discrete choice with at least some capacity-related variables missing, like e.g. the price of a commodity. Airport choice models often do not contain air fares because of measurement difficulties as air fares...

In the process of loan pricing, stress testing, capital allocation, modeling of PD term structure, and IFRS9 expected credit loss estimation, it is widely expected that higher risk grades carry higher default risks, and that an entity is more likely to migrate to a closer non-default rating than...

Common ordinal models, including the ordered logit model and the continuation ratio model, are structured by a common score (i.e., a linear combination of a list of given explanatory variables) plus rank specific intercepts. Sensitivity with respect to the common score is generally not...

In this paper we discuss the most recent developments of temporal disaggregation techniques carried out at ISTAT. They concern the extension from static to dynamic autoregressive distributed lag ADL regressions and the change to a state-space framework for the statistical treatment of temporal...

Most point-in-time PD term structure models used in industry for stress testing and IFRS9 expected loss estimation apply only to macroeconomic scenarios. Loan level credit quality is not a factor in these models. In practice, credit profile at assessment time plays an important role in the...

In this paper we discuss the most recent developments of temporal disaggregation techniques carried out at ISTAT. They concern the extension from static to dynamic autoregressive distributed lag ADL regressions and the change to a state-space framework for the statistical treatment of temporal...

This paper proposes a mean field variational Bayes algorithm for efficient posterior and predictive inference in time-varying parameter models. Our approach involves: i) computationally trivial Kalman filter updates of regression coefficients, ii) a dynamic variable selection prior that removes...

Monotonic estimation for the survival probability of a loan in a risk-rated portfolio is based on the observation arising, for example, from loan pricing that a loan with a lower credit risk rating is more likely to survive than a loan with a higher credit risk rating, given the same additional...