In this paper we show that survey-based-expectations about the future evolution of the Chilean exchange rate have the ability to predict the returns of the six primary non-ferrous metals: aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. Predictability is also found for returns of the London Metal...

This draft is a summary of the paper entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate. In that paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of oil prices and of three additional oil-related products: gasoline, propane and heating oil. The...

In this paper we examine the linkages of government bond yield spreads (BYS) between Euro zone countries over the period March 3, 2007 - June 18, 2012, thus considering the intriguing features of BYS spillovers during the global financial and the Euro zone debt crisis. Splitting our sample to...

El artículo investiga la incertidumbre y la interdependencia entre el mercado accionario colombiano y los principales mercados internacionales. Se estima un modelo Correlación Condicional Dinámica (DCC) para estudiar la interdependencia entre los mercados accionarios seleccionados y un modelo...

Previous studies on spillover effects in future markets have so far confined themselves to static analyses. In this study, we use a newly introduced spillover index to examine dynamic spillovers between spot and futures market volatility, volume of futures trading and open interest in the UK and...

This paper investigates the validation of the Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis (MDH) using trading volume and number of trades as contemporaneous proxies for information arrival in the Saudi Exchange (Tadawul). The sample comprises 15 sector indices from April 2008 to August 2013. The...

In the empirical finance literature findings on the risk return tradeoff in excess stock market returns are ambiguous. In this study, we develop a new QR-GARCH-M model combining a probit model for a binary business cycle indicator and a regime switching GARCH-in-mean model for excess stock...

This is the first paper in the literature to match key business cycle moments and long-run equity returns in a small open economy with production. These results are achieved by introducing three modications to a standard real business cycle model: (1) borrowing and lending costs are imposed to...

We propose a stochastic spanning approach to assess whether a traditional portfolio of stocks and bonds spans augmented portfolios including commodities, foreign exchange, and real estate. We empirically show that in all seven portfolio combinations, the augmented portfolio is not spanned by the...

We propose a stochastic spanning approach to assess whether a traditional portfolio of stocks and bonds spans augmented portfolios including commodities, foreign exchange, and real estate. We empirically show that in all seven portfolio combinations, the augmented portfolio is not spanned by the...