It is well known that U.S. monetary policy is well-approximated by a Taylor rule. This suggests a reason why good macroeconomic news sometimes depresses equity returns: good news about the real side of the economy implies tighter future monetary policy. I test this hypothesis by assessing the...

I generate priors for a VAR from four competing models of economic fluctuations: a standard RBC model, Fisher’s (2006) investment-specific technology shocks model, an RBC model with capital adjustment costs and habit formation, and a sticky price model with an unaccommodating monetary...