This paper examines the dynamic patterns of international linkages of the Japanese government bond yields with government bond yields in the US, the UK and Germany during the period from January 1980 to December 2004. Applying the vector autoregression (VAR) model and the vector error correction...

The calculation of interval forecasts for highly persistent autoregressive (AR) time series based on the bootstrap is considered. Three methods are considered for countering the small-sample bias of least-squares estimation for processes which have roots close to the unit circle: a bootstrap...

Quantile forecasts are central to risk management decisions because of the widespread use of Value-at-Risk. A quantile forecast is the product of two factors: the model used to forecast volatility, and the method of computing quantiles from the volatility forecasts. In this paper we calculate...

There has been concern about the effectiveness of India's agricultural policy reforms adopted in recent years as part of the overall policy liberalisation process. These concerns have been strengthened by studies of spatial market integration of major agricultural commodity markets, such as the...

Quantile forecasts are central to risk management decisions because of the widespread use of Value-at-Risk. A quantile forecast is the product of two factors: the model used to forecast volatility, and the method of computing quantiles from the volatility forecasts. In this paper we calculate...