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This draft is a summary of the paper entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate. In that paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of oil prices and of three additional oil-related products: gasoline, propane and heating oil. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015229382
I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015230637
In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015265738
I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015233042
This paper explores relative price convergence for 18 cities in Turkey. The convergence implies stationarity in the long run. Henceforth, to observe whether price convergence occurs or not, this study conducts unit root tests following Lee and Strazicich (2003) with two structural breaks in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015241548
The concept of NAIRU summarized the observed negative correlation between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015243033
This work presents a forecasting inflation model using a monthly database. Conventional models for forecasting … inflation use a small number of macroeconomic variables. In the context of globalization and dependent economic world, models … countries as well as developing countries. With Dynamic Factors Model the forecast values are closer to actual inflation than …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015248315
This work presents a forecasting inflation model using a monthly database. Conventional models for forecasting … inflation use a small number of macroeconomic variables. In the context of globalization and dependent economic world, models … countries as well as developing countries. With Dynamic Factors Model the forecast values are closer to actual inflation than …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015250093
, and develops alternative models for the estimation of NAICU using several capacity utilization and inflation rates, and … economy. Hence, there has to be a relation between the capacity utilization rate and the inflation rate in line with the … Phillips curve concept. Moreover, the long term inflation forecasting appears to be a central concern for the policy makers …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015250624
Does inflation affect economic growth in Botswana over the short-run and long-run? In applying bounds procedure for … not hold true for Botswana as inflation is found to be insignificantly related with economic growth over both the short … an appreciated Pula/dollar exchange rate increases inflation whilst bearing no effect on economic growth. Conversely, a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015260732