This paper investigates sensitivity of the VaR models when return series of stocks and stock indices are not normally distributed. It also studies the effect of market capitalization of stocks and stock indices on their Value at risk and Conditional VaR estimation. Three different market...

Global trends show high levels of households’ indebtedness, not seen before, in developed and emerging economies that could affect countries’ financial stability. This paper develops an approach based on market aspects to estimate households’ debt thresholds, applicable to any economy...

In light of the crucial contribution insurance firms make to global investment, this paper examines the extent of systemic risks facing emerging market insurance, with a particular focus on South Africa, one of the African continent's most prominent emerging economies. Contrary to past studies,...

This paper investigates the estimation of the Value-at-Risk (VaR) across various probability levels for the log-returns of a comprehensive dataset comprising four thousand crypto-assets. Employing four recently introduced Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI) algorithms, we aim to provide robust...

We consider two popular classes of volatility models, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) model and the stochastic volatility (SV) model. We compare these two models with two classes of intensity models, the integer-valued GARCH (INGARCH) model and the...

This paper introduces a novel Bayesian time series model that combines the nonparametric features of an infinite hidden Markov model with the volatility persistence captured by the GARCH framework, to effectively model and forecast short-term interest rates. When applied to US 3-month Treasury...

The popularity of cryptocurrency exchanges has surged in recent years, accompanied by the proliferation of new digital platforms and tokens. However, the issue of credit risk and the reliability of crypto exchanges remain critical, highlighting the need for indicators to assess the safety of...

Sergey Aivazian was the head of my department at the Moscow School of Economics, but he was much more than that. He played an important role in my life, and he contributed to my studies devoted to copula modelling. This small memoir reports how this amazingly polite and smart scientist helped me...

We propose a new model for transaction data that accounts jointly for the time duration between transactions and for the discreteness of the intraday stock price changes. Duration is assumed to follow a stochastic conditional duration model, while price discreteness is captured by an...