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(2005): Bayesian estimation with time varying coefficients and stochastic volatility. Our paper contributes to the …Our paper follows the "Time Varying Parameter VAR with Stochastic Volatility" (TVP VAR) approach developed by Primiceri …’s volatility of the VAR model. The multivariate stochastic volatility aims at capturing the heteroskedasticity of shocks and non …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015256423
We propose a new methodology for ranking in probability the commonly proposed drivers of inflation in the New Keynesian model. The approach is based on Bayesian model selection among restricted VAR models, each of which embodies only one or none of the candidate variables as the driver....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015234126
In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015265738
This paper assessed the effects of housing market shocks on real output in South Africa over the period 1969Q4 – 2014Q4, by emphasizing the real private consumption channel. The agnostic identification procedure employed in this paper has delivered impulse responses that are overall consistent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015250866
This paper assessed the effects of housing market shocks on real output in South Africa over the period 1969Q4 – 2014Q4, by emphasizing the real private consumption channel. The agnostic identification procedure employed in this paper has delivered impulse responses that are overall consistent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015251111
This paper evaluates optimal monetary policy in a new Keynesian model for an open economy with financial frictions. In the model, aggregate demand is made up of the weighted average of the short and long-term interest rates. A comprehensive set of monetary policy rules is established, all...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015212232
), technology (growth rate and volatility), and/or nominal price rigidities. In the models, agents are assumed to know deep … estimation method that takes these probabilistic inferences into account when relating state variables to observed data. In an … results indicate that, even though a passive policy regime produced more volatility in the economy from the early 1970s to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015215980
proposing a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) model with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility. The VAR … the US economy resulted in the high inflation volatility during the 1970s and early 1980s. The time-varying factor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015224813
This paper studies the transmission of monetary shocks to state unemployment rates, within a novel structural factor-augmented VAR framework with a time-varying propagation mechanism. We find evidence of large heterogeneity over time in the responses of state unemployment rates to monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015224815
proposing a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) model with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility. The VAR … the US economy resulted in the high inflation volatility during the 1970s and early 1980s. The time-varying factor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015229578