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This study analyses empirically the link between real house prices and key macro variables like prices, output and interest rates for ten OECD countries. We find out that a monetary policy shock lowers real house prices in all ten countries, where the interest rate shock explains between 12 and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015217421
driven by aggregate demand shocks, whereas supply shocks are playing the dominant role in affecting inflation in ASEAN …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015219926
indicate that domestic inflation is countercyclical with real output and lags the GDP cycle by one quarter. We then construct a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015221154
Identifications of a vertical then a horizontal supply curve are successively imposed on Indian time series inflation … large impact on inflation and demand has a large and persistent effect on output levels. But supply is subject to frequent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015222422
Previously, a linear and lagged relationship between inflation and labor force change rate, π(t)= A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1 … (RMFSE) of 0.8% at a two-year horizon for the period between 1965 and 2002 (the best among other inflation forecasting models … relation between macroeconomic and population variables, to a practical one - an accurate out-of-sample inflation forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015224669
A linear and lagged relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate, π(t)=A0UE(t-t0)+A1dLF … in previous study holds together with statistical estimates of goodness-of-fit and RMSFE. Relationships between inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015224683
fluctuations of output gap, however constructed or measured, are a good predictor of inflation in the UAE. This is carried out by … inflation in the UAE. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015228881
, prices and inflation expectations rise, and the dollar depreciates—providing evidence for a strong channel operating through …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015235942
In this paper we show that survey-based-expectations about the future evolution of the Chilean exchange rate have the ability to predict the returns of the six primary non-ferrous metals: aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. Predictability is also found for returns of the London Metal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015261799
In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015265738