We use vector error correction models to examine the interdependence between the high and the low price tiers during the latest housing market boom and bust. For 118 of the 364 US statistical areas analyzed, the tiered price indexes are bound by a long-run relationship. In general, low tier...

In this study, we examine the effects of a shock in foreign interest rate on the macroeconomic performance of Turkey. We use two different structural vector autoregression models (SVAR) and specify them differently for the pre and post 2001:6 period. Based on the results of the SVAR models we...

This paper uses real-time data for the U.S. to estimate out-of-sample forecast uncertainty about the Federal Funds Rate. By combining a Taylor rule with an unobserved components model of economic fundamentals I separate forecast uncertainty into economically interpretable components that...

I estimate DSGE models with recurring regime changes in monetary policy (inflation target and reaction coefficients), technology (growth rate and volatility), and/or nominal price rigidities. In the models, agents are assumed to know deep parameter values but make probabilistic inference about...

The stable macroeconomic environment, as one of the primary objectives of the Visegrad countries in the 1990s, was partially supported by the exchange rate policy. Fixed exchange rate systems within gradually widen bands (Czech republic, Slovak republic) and crawling peg system (Hungary, Poland)...

One of the most challenging areas relating to the European Monetary Union (EMU) enlargement is the question of new member countries’ vulnerability to exogenous shocks related to euro adoption. Even if well prepared, and also considering the business cycles of the EMU candidate countries became...

The stable macroeconomic environment, as one of the primary objectives of the Visegrad countries in the 1990s, was partially supported by the exchange rate policy. Fixed exchange rate systems within gradually widen bands (Czech republic, Slovak republic) and crawling peg system (Hungary, Poland)...

The main purpose of this paper is to show evidence about the negative impact of oil price shocks in the economy of Spain. Since oil demand is continuously increasing all around the world and OPEC countries use to act having certain power to raise them, it is necessary to study how these price...

Using real-time data I estimate out-of-sample forecast uncertainty about the Federal Funds Rate. Combining a Taylor rule with a model of economic fundamentals I disentangle economically interpretable components of forecast uncertainty: uncertainty about future economic conditions and uncertainty...

Exchange rate plays an important role in transmitting pressures from the external shocks to the domestic economy. Development of inflation in the domestic economy is significantly determined by the ability of exchange rate to transmit external price related pressures to the domestic market....