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Summary of the Paper Entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate

Pincheira, Pablo; Jarsun, Nabil - 2020

This draft is a summary of the paper entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate. In that paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of oil prices and of three additional oil-related products: gasoline, propane and heating oil. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015229382

The case for higher frequency inflation expectations

Guzman, Giselle C. - 2011

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015230637

Macro Stress-Testing Credit Risk in Romanian Banking System

Ruja, Catalin - 2014

This report presents an application of a macro stress testing procedure on credit risk in the Romanian banking system. Macro stress testing, i.e. assessing the vulnerability of financial systems to exceptional but plausible macroeconomic scenarios, maintains a central role in macro-prudential...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015243963

Estimation and inference in unstable nonlinear least squares models

Boldea, Otilia; Hall, Alastair R. - 2010

In this paper, we extend Bai and Perron's (1998, Econometrica, pp. 47-78) method for detecting multiple breaks to nonlinear models. To that end, we consider a nonlinear model that can be estimated via nonlinear least squares (NLS) and features a limited number of parameter shifts occurring at...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015221914

On whether foreign direct investment catalyzes economic development in Nigeria.

OKPARA, GODWIN CHIGOZIE - 2012

This paper investigated the impact of Foreign Direct Investment on some selected macro-economic variables such as real GDP, gross fixed capital formation and unemployment. Data for the variables were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Statistical Bulletin. For the assessment of this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015230324

Yeni Klasik kurama göre bütçe politikalarının değerlendirilmesi

Bilgili, Faik - 1999

The New Classical theorem asserts that (a) the individuals with rational expectations do not change their consumption levels unless the expected permanent income changes, and, (b), thusly, tax and/or debt policies are not significant on consumption decisions of the individuals, at least in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015257140

How sustainable are fiscal budgets in the Kingdom of Swaziland?

Phiri, Andrew - 2018

The recently experienced Swazi fiscal crisis of 2011 has facilitated the need for an academic probe into the sustainability of fiscal budgets in the Kingdom. Against the absence of empirical evidence evaluating the sustainability of Swazi fiscal budget, our study fills the hiatus by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015259608

Inference regarding multiple structural changes in linear models estimated via two stage least squares

Hall, Alastair R.; Han, Sanggohn; Boldea, Otilia - 2008

In this paper, we extend Bai and Perron’s (1998, Econometrica, p.47-78) framework for multiple break testing to linear models estimated via Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS). Within our framework, the break points are estimated simultaneously with the regression parameters via minimization of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015263275

Asymptotic Distribution Theory for Break Point Estimators in Models Estimated via 2SLS

Hall, Alastair R.; Han, Sanggohn; Boldea, Otilia - 2008

In this paper, we present a limiting distribution theory for the break point estimator in a linear regression model estimated via Two Stage Least Squares under two different scenarios regarding the magnitude of the parameter change between regimes. First, we consider the case where the parameter...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015264398

Forecasting Aluminum Prices with Commodity Currencies

Pincheira, Pablo; Hardy, Nicolás - 2019

In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015265738