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the term premia is driven primarily by nominal uncertainty, i.e. the uncertainty for expected inflation and the US term …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015245535
In this paper we examine the linkages of government bond yield spreads (BYS) between Euro zone countries over the period March 3, 2007 - June 18, 2012, thus considering the intriguing features of BYS spillovers during the global financial and the Euro zone debt crisis. Splitting our sample to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015235050
The aim of the study is to investigate the behaviour of the Chinese government bond yield curve before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Its methodology comprises the techniques of time series analysis, correlation analysis and dimensionality reduction. The main empirical results show that in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015270219
We examine the accuracy of survey-based expectations of the Chilean exchange rate relative to the US dollar. Our out-of-sample analysis reveals that survey-based forecasts outperform the Driftless Random Walk (DRW) in terms of Mean Squared Prediction Error at several forecasting horizons. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015262273
those cases in which the central monetary authority implements an inflation targeting regime. One of the conclusions of this … is not an obstacle to successfully implement an inflation targeting scheme and that, in addition, those countries that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015261577
time). Yet, even during periods of low inflation or deflation, nominal financial statements violate this assumption. I … posit that, while the effects of inflation are not recognized in nominal statements, such effects may have economic … consequences. I find that unrecognized inflation gains and losses help predict future cash flows as these gains and losses turn …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015240617
This paper proposes a new methodology for extracting inflation expectations from financial markets. For this purpose, a … synthetic financial asset is built whose returns are matched with the inflation rate by construction. The methodology estimates … inflation expectations are obtained. This approach clarifies the mechanisms behind a negative risk premium: an inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015250801
-Board-Systeme das Zeitinkonsistenzproblem der Geldpolitik lösen, da aufgrund ihrer gesetzlichen Verankerung eine überraschende … Zeitinkonsistenz­problem der Geldpolitik dominant ist, und dies obwohl asymmetrische Schocks nicht stabilisiert werden können. Eine … participating countries. This question is especially interesting from an empirical point of view, as output growth and inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009476166
In this paper I will introduce a new political economy model, where there exists a competition amongst two political candidates, which aim to set a policy which enables them to win elections, max- imising the probability of winning. I will show that, if taxes neces- sary to repay the debt are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015221479
We discuss the meaning of the concept of implicit pension debt (unfunded pen-sion liabilities) from a public finance perspective and contrast different definitions such a variable with the notion of public debt. We conclude that the implicit pen-sion is deeply different from public debt but...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015226202