This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

It is widely acknowledged that fire sales were a critical factor in inducing and exacerbating the financial crises of 2007--2008. The leverage of financial intermediaries, which is defined as the ratio of total assets to capital, is a key factor in causing fire sales. Why do financial...

An accommodating monetary policy followed by a sudden increase of the short term interest rate often leads to a bubble burst and to an economic slowdown. Two examples are the Great Depression of 1929 and the Great Recession of 2008. Through the implementation of an Agent Based Model with a...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

This article assesses the communication of the European Central Bank (ECB) using Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. We show the evolution of discourse over time and capture the main themes of interest for the central bank that go beyond its traditional mandate of maintaining price...

There is growing evidence that fiscal consolidation may contribute to economic growth even in the short term. In this paper we review recent research on such non-Keynesian fiscal policy effects and apply panel data econometric techniques to examine the consequences of fiscal consolidation in the...

This paper surveys evidence on fiscal multipliers from the Euro area and the United States obtained by direct, cross-state or economywide measures of the effects of broad-based tax cuts and increases in government purchases. In view of the evidence in the literature I conclude that that fiscal...

This is the first paper in the literature to match key business cycle moments and long-run equity returns in a small open economy with production. These results are achieved by introducing three modications to a standard real business cycle model: (1) borrowing and lending costs are imposed to...

In the empirical finance literature findings on the risk return tradeoff in excess stock market returns are ambiguous. In this study, we develop a new QR-GARCH-M model combining a probit model for a binary business cycle indicator and a regime switching GARCH-in-mean model for excess stock...

By estimating a Markov-switching model, we provide new evidence on the nonlinear effects of monetary policy shocks on asset prices and on their bubble component. We show that regime-dependence is mainly driven by the states affecting the interest rate equation. We also show that, following a...