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This draft is a summary of the paper entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate. In that paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of oil prices and of three additional oil-related products: gasoline, propane and heating oil. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015229382
In this paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of the London Metal Exchange Index and of the six primary non-ferrous metals that are part of the index: aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. The economic relationship hinges on the present-value...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015258752
This paper offers an explanation for the forward discount puzzle in foreign exchange markets based upon investor overconfidence. In our model, overconfident individuals overreact to their information about future inflation differential. The spot and the forward exchange rates differentially...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015247915
Most limit orders exit the market as cancellations or revisions without a transaction. Using the EBS dataset, we can measure how long an individual limit order remains in the foreign exchange (FX) market. Thus, we use the measured lifetimes of canceled limit orders and find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015251284
The aim of this paper is to look for evidence of financial contagion suffered by several countries as a result of the latest Argentine crisis. I focus my attention on a set of countries: Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Uruguay, and Venezuela. I also focus exclusively on three financial markets:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015225465
This paper examines co-movements and volatility spillovers in the returns of the euro, the British pound, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen vis-a-vis the US dollar before and after the introduction of the euro. Based on dynamic correlations, variance decompositions, generalized VAR analysis,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015231344
This paper identifies the best models for forecasting the volatility of daily exchange returns of developing countries. An emerging consensus in the recent literature focusing on industrialised counties has noted the superior performance of the FIGARCH model in the case of industrialised...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015233459
This paper establishes the link of microstructure and macroeconomic factors with the time-varying conditional correlation of foreign exchange and excess equity returns. By using the proposed DCC model with exogenous variables, capital flows and interest rate differentials are shown to be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015256750
We study the impact of positive and negative macroeconomic US and European news announcements in different phases of the business cycle on the highfrequency volatility of the EUR/USD exchange rate. The results suggest that in general bad news increases volatility more than good news. The news...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015258427
India, Japan and Vietnam are net-receivers. Results from a sub-sample containing highly industrializing economies in Asia …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015269346