Through an estimated and calibrated DSGE model with imperfect competition and nominal rigidities, this work aims to assess the dynamic effects of exogenous perturbations in a small open economy to provide a prescription of a simple monetary policy rule associated with the minimal welfare losses...

How much do weather shocks matter? This paper analyzes the role of weather shocks in the generation and propagation of business cycles. We develop and estimate an original DSGE model with a weather-dependent agricultural sector. The model is estimated using Bayesian methods and quarterly data...

How much do weather shocks matter? This paper analyzes the role of weather shocks in the generation and propagation of business cycles. We develop and estimate an original DSGE model with a weather-dependent agricultural sector. The model is estimated using Bayesian methods and quarterly data...

How much do weather shocks matter? The literature addresses this question in two isolated ways: either by looking at long-term effects through the prism of theoretical models, or by focusing on short-term effects using empirical analysis. We propose a framework to bring together both the short...

In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the...

This paper proposes a simple technical approach for the derivation of future (forward) point-in-time PD forecasts, with minimal data requirements. The inputs required are the current and future through-the-cycle PDs of the obligors, their last known default rates, and a measure for the...

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a closed economy which approximately accounts for the empirical evidence concerning the monetary transmission mechanism, as summarized by impulse response functions derived from an estimated structural vector...

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy which approximately accounts for the empirical evidence concerning the monetary transmission mechanism, as summarized by impulse response functions derived from an estimated structural vector...

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a closed economy which provides a quantitative description of the monetary transmission mechanism, yields a mutually consistent set of indicators of inflationary pressure together with confidence intervals, and...

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy which provides a quantitative description of the monetary transmission mechanism, yields a mutually consistent set of indicators of inflationary pressure together with confidence intervals,...