The paper compares different procedures to convert in ordinary quantitative indicators the results of qualitative tendency surveys. The main result is that different procedures tend to produce quantitative indicators with a very similar dynamics. A new quantification method based on the...

Based on a large and representative panel of German firms, this paper relates a novel measure of subjective uncertainty to business expectations and firm decisions. Uncertainty is measured by asking managers directly how uncertain they are about their future business development. I show that the...

A growing body of literature reports evidence of social interaction effects in survey expectations. In this note, we argue that evidence in favor of social interaction effects should be treated with caution, or could even be spurious. Utilizing a parsimonious stochastic model of expectation...

The rational expectations hypothesis (REH) serves as an appealing mechanism in forming expectations compared to that of extrapolative or adaptive frameworks because of its consistency with the basic principles of maximizing behavior. This argument is particularly true as the basic idea of REH...

The underlying nature of forecast optimization makes the rational expectations hypothesis (REH) a framework that is theoretically consistent with the expectations formation produced by economic agents under well-defined assumptions of unbiased forecasts and efficient utilization of available...

Aim: We examine the relationship between the subjective assessment of health status and retirement by using information on expected and actual retirement ages. Methods: Subjective data from cross-sectional surveys, conducted in Finland in 2003 and 2008, are linked to information on actual...

In this paper I analyse a labour market where the wage is endogenously determined according to an Efficient Bargaining process between a firm and a labour union whose members are partitioned into two social groups: the old and the young. Furthermore, I exploit the Single-Mindedness theory, which...

Using pseudo-panel microdata we show that pension generosity affects early retirement decisions. The changes in the average replacement rate and decreases in wealth accrual between 1967 and 2004 have caused an increase in early retirement probabilities from 16% to 63%.

The debate on the reform of the pension system in Spain is not very lively, in contrast with the international experience. The Spanish economic boom since the mis nineties, the slowdown in the number of pensioners due to the retirement of the cohorts born during the Civil War, and the...

Early retirement of workers is used by firms as means to rejuvenate their workforces. In principle, workers can either simply be laid off or can be offered an early retirement option combined with a financial bonus. However, dismissing masses of older workers may be detrimental to social peace...