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In this paper we study international linkages when forecasting unemployment rates in a sample of 24 OECD economies. We propose a Global Unemployment Factor (GUF) and test its predictive ability considering in-sample and out-of-sample exercises. Our main results indicate that the predictive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015266130
In this paper we introduce a “power booster factor” for out-of-sample tests of predictability. The relevant econometric environment is one in which the econometrician wants to compare the population Mean Squared Prediction Errors (MSPE) of two models: one big nesting model, and another...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015254953
-value theory for exchange rate determination and on the strong co-movement displayed by some commodity prices. The Chilean economy … importantly affected by fluctuations in the copper price. As oil-related products display an important co-movement with base metal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015229382
We examine the accuracy of survey-based expectations of the Chilean exchange rate relative to the US dollar. Our out-of-sample analysis reveals that survey-based forecasts outperform the Driftless Random Walk (DRW) in terms of Mean Squared Prediction Error at several forecasting horizons. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015262273
). Specifically, it might be the case that the forecast displaying the lowest MSPE also exhibits the lowest correlation with the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015267340
forecasts may be highly controversial. This is so because when some specific conditions of efficiency are not met, the forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015241474
Since the dawn of the concept of nation-states, many nations have been planning their economies to increase people’s prosperity and standard of living. All economies have a centralized feature where decisions are taken. But data collection and plan implementation has been cumbersome because of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015258345
% (5%) level, from a total of 895 stocks. These statistical forecast improvements also translate into considerable economic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015262252
We discuss the economic reasons why the predictions of price and return statistical moments in the coming decades, in … the best case, will be limited by their averages and volatilities. That limits the accuracy of the forecasts of price and … predictions of the market-based n-th statistical moments of price and return for n=1,2,., require the description of the economic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015213335
The accuracy of predictions of price and return probabilities substantially determines the reliability of asset pricing … price and return for the whole stock market with predictions of price and return probabilities for stocks of a particular … in the fact that the predictions of the m-th statistical moments of price and return require descriptions of the economic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015270594