This report presents two series of studies performed before COP-6 and COP-6bis, in order to provide DG Environment with economic analysis of the issues at stake in international climate negotiations. These analysis used the background information provided by the large scale world energy partial...

Agriculture contributes significantly to the emissions of greenhouse gases in the EU. By using a farm-type, linear-programming based model of the European agricultural supply, we first assess the initial levels of methane and nitrous oxide emissions at the regional level in the EU. For a range...

Even though deforestation in tropical developing countries releases large quantities of greenhouse gases, the Kyoto Protocol does not include mechanisms for forest conservation. Nevertheless, deforestation and forest degradation has now taken centre-stage as the developed countries, having...

Often only limited information can be elicited from experts about a distribution, such as quantiles or other summary statistics. Skewed non-negative distributions often arise in practice, and present a particular challenge for elicitation due to their asymmetry. This paper provides a range of...

Within our research group Bayesian Risk Solutions we have coined the idea of a Bayesian Risk Management (BRM). It claims (1) a more transparent and diligent data analysis as well as (2)an open-minded incorporation of human expertise in risk management. In this dissertation we formulize a...

Thesis (PhD)--University of South Australia, 2009

The techniques of probabilistic population forecasting are increasingly being recognised as a profitable means of overcoming many of the limitations of conventional deterministic variant population forecasts. This paper applies these techniques to present the first comprehensive set of...

The variability of demographic trends at the subnational scale, particularly internal and international migration, renders subnational population forecasting more difficult than at the national scale. Illustrating the uncertainty of the demographic future for subnational regions is therefore a...

This paper reports on the application of a probabilistic forecasting framework to Statistics New Zealand’s 2004-based national population projections. The assumptions of the Series 5 projections (the middle series)were set as the medians of the fertility, mortality and net migration predictive...