This paper studies how changes in oil supply expectations affect the oil price and the macroeconomy. Using a novel identification design, exploiting institutional features of OPEC and high-frequency data, I identify an oil supply news shock. These shocks have statistically and economically...

In this study, the analysis was that the capacity of creating inflation depends on oil prices as the one of energy types that is a major input of aggregate output which becomes a source of economic growth with increasing in costs. The aggregate output is also a function of energy that is the one...

This paper proposes a new measure proxying the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations on an individual forecaster level and studies the co-movement of this measure with expectations regarding monetary policy and different cost-push factors. In doing so, we rely on data taken from the ECB...

We follow a non-linear dynamic correlation approach using a combination of a DCC-GARCH model and a copula model to capture the dependence between oil price changes and inflation in Tunisia. The case of Tunisia is particularly instructive since, after having been an exporter and a major producer,...

This paper analyzes cycles in policy interest rates in 24 advanced economies over 1970–2024, combining a new application of business cycle methodology with rich time-series decompositions of the shocks driving rate movements. “Rate cycles” have gradually evolved over time, with less...

Conventional empirical models of monetary policy transmission in emerging market economies produce puzzling results: monetary tightening often leads to an increase in prices (the price puzzle) and depreciation of the currency (the FX puzzle). We show that incorporating forward-looking...

Conventional empirical models of monetary policy transmission in emerging market economies produce puzzling results: monetary tightening often leads to an increase in prices (the price puzzle) and depreciation of the currency (the FX puzzle). We show that incorporating forward-looking...

We follow a non-linear dynamic correlation approach using a combination of a DCC-GARCH model and a copula model to capture the dependence between oil price changes and inflation in Tunisia. The case of Tunisia is particularly instructive since, after having been an exporter and a major producer,...

Asymmetric impacts of oil price shocks on key macroeconomic variables are caused by some important effects, such as income effect, uncertainty effect, precautionary saving effect, irreversible investment and reallocation effects. Due to these effects, output and prices respond diferently to oil...

In this paper we examine the relationship between oil prices and consumer gas prices in the euro area. The main features of the paper are: (1) the combination of low frequency (semi-annual) consumer gas price data on price levels from Eurostat with higher frequency (monthly) index HICP data; (2)...