The main theoretical problems of meso-economic system development have been analyzed in this article. For this purpose the system theory, synergetic and gomeostatic approaches, the main principles of dialectics (especially principle contradiction) have been used. Meso-systems (including economic...

This paper investigates neural network tools, especially the nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous input (NARX), to forecast the future conditions of the Index of Financial Safety (IFS) of South Africa. Based on the time series that was used to construct the IFS for South Africa...

This paper proposes an approach to explore the strength of the financial system of a country against the possibility of financial perturbations appearing based on the construction of the Index of Financial Safety (IFS) of a country. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Gibbs sampler technique...

Some theoretical problems and methodology of meso-economic systems were analysed in this article. For this purpose, systems analysis, synergetic and homeostatic approaches, the basic principles of the theory of logical inference, and research operations were utilised. Meso-systems (including...

In this article the approach of Global Vector-Autoregressive (GVAR) models has been applied to Ukraine and its neighbour-countries which contiguous to Ukraine: Belarus, Bulgaria, Georgia, Moldova, Romania, Poland, Slovakia, Russia Federation, Turkey and Hungary. The goal of the research is to...

In this article the theoretical analysis and practical application of Bayesian approach for vector autoregressive model parameters estimation with different priors have been peformed. The time series was from 2001Q1 to 2010Q4 and included the following variables: GDP, CPI, exchange rate,...

This paper proposes an approach to explore the strength of the financial system of Turkey against the possibility of financial disturbances appearing based on the construction of the Index of Financial Safety (IFS) of a country. For this purpose the macro-prudential approach, system analyses,...

This paper analyses the strength of the financial system of Tunisia through the construction of an Index of Financial Safety (IFS). Over the period 2000Q1 – 2014Q3, the IFS is built using a wide range of financial and macroeconomic indicators. The empirical results show that it can capture the...