Using a Markov-switching prediction pool method (Waggoner and Zha, 2012) in terms of density forecasts, we assess the time-varying forecasting performance of a DSGE model incorporating a financial accelerator a la Bernanke et al. (1999) with the frictionless model by focusing on periods of...

We consider how and the extent to which a pure technology shock driven by R&D activities impacts on business cycles as well as economic growth, using a medium-scale neo-classical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model following Comin and Gertler (2006). We try to identify a pure...

This paper estimates a dynamic stochastic general quilibrium (DSGE) model for the Japanese economy over 1970:Q1 through 1998:Q4, which is prior to the period of zero interest rate bound. More specifically, the New-Keynesian DSGE model with several frictions such as stickiness in price and wage,...

In this paper, we study the forecasting performances of the affine term structure model (ATSM) and the quadratic term structure model (QTSM) with macro-finance features under the zero interest rate policy of Japan. As both the two models can be potentially misspecified, we adopt the pptimal...

Using a regime-switching VAR, this paper investigates the effect of monetary policy in Japan. Unlike previous studies, this paper considers more than two regimes and introduces into the VAR analysis standard variables such as the money supply and price level. Based on the standard procedure, the...

This paper presents an analysis as to whether or not there has been a structural break of Okun’s Law, and if so, how many, when and what kind of break, using Bayesian methods via MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) simulation for the Japanese data from 1961Q1 to 2001Q1. In addition, it identifies...

Abstract This paper estimates heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) model for US and Japan through three aggregate observations: real GDP, inflation and interest rate, by adopting combination of easy-to-use computational method for solving the model, developed by Ahn, Kaplan, Moll, Winberry...

Abstract This study estimates time varying fiscal multipliers from the aspect of fiscal policy rules derived from the systematic component along the line of “Agnostic Identification Procedure” proposed by Caldara and Kamps (2017) for the US economy between 1952:Q1-2018:Q1. To do so, we adopt...

Abstract This paper estimates heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) model for US and Japan through three aggregate observations: real GDP, inflation and interest rate, by adopting combination of easy-to-use computational method for solving the model, developed by Ahn, Kaplan, Moll, Winberry...

Using a Markov-switching model and Bayesian inference, the turning points of Japanese business cycles are identified from a monthly coincident composite index series, taken over the last thirty years. Ordinarily, in taking such a long-range estimation approach, we would face the following...