politicians generates a procyclical bias in government spending. The introduction of fiscal transparency generates two new … redictions: 1) the procyclical bias in fiscal policy arises only in good times; and 2) a higher degree of fiscal transparency … reduces the bias in good times. We find solid empirical support for both predictions using data on both OECD countries and a …

There is evidence in the economic literature that near cyclical peaks an optimistic bias exists in private expert … and those made during contractions. It has also been hypothesized that a wishful bias may hamper the ability to recognize … would be missed in real time); b) there is a wishful bias in forecasts against predicting recessions (this reluctance may be …

evidence for the existence of a wishful bias against predicting recessions. If this bias exists, customers of SPF forecasts …