We develop a structural bond pricing approach and implement it on a large panel of US industrial bonds using an efficient maximum likelihood methodology. We evaluate the model's ability to predict yield spread levels and changes out-of-sample. Errors are smaller and distinctly less variable than...

Most extant structural credit risk models underestimate credit spreads while matching default rates, recoveries, leverage, and equity risk premia - a shortcoming known as the credit spread puzzle. We calibrate and estimate a model able to explain medium to long-term credit spreads by...