Mortality projections are major concerns for public policy, social security and private insurance. This paper implements a Bayesian log-bilinear Poisson regression model to forecast mortality. Computations are carried out using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in which the degree of smoothing is...

In this paper we model absolute price changes of an option on the XETRA DAX index based on quote-by-quote data from the EUREX exchange. In contrast to other authors, we focus on a parameter-driven model for this purpose and use a Poisson Generalized Linear Model (GLM) with a latent AR(1) process...

This work is motivated by a mobility study conducted in the city of Munich, Germany. The variable of interest is a binary response, which indicates whether public transport has been utilized or not. One of the central questions is to identify areas of low/high utilization of public transport...

Three classes of models for time series on acyclic directed graphs are considered. At first a review of tree-structured models constructed from a nested partitioning of the observation interval is given. This nested partitioning leads to several resolution scales. The concept of mass balance...

Considering absolute log returns as a proxy for stochastic volatility, the influence of explanatory variables on absolute log returns of ultra high frequency data is analysed. The irregular time structure and time dependency of the data is captured by utilizing a continuous time ARMA(p,q)...

This paper considers the problem of modeling migraine severity assessments and their dependence on weather and time characteristics. Since ordinal severity measurements arise from a single patient dependencies among the measurements have to be accounted for. For this the autoregressive ordinal...

In this paper we present a Gibbs sampler for a Poisson model including spatial effects. Frühwirth-Schnatter and Wagner (2004b) show that by data augmentation via the introduction of two sequences of latent variables a Poisson regression model can be transformed into a normal linear model. We...

In this paper we investigate intraday data of the IBM stock and a time series representing the sleep states of a newborn child. In both cases we are interested in the influence of several covariates observed together with the response series. For the purpose we use on the one hand the regression...

In this paper we quantify the inception selection effect of diagnosis in a large German long term care (LTC) portfolio. First we are interested in modeling transition intensities, which will then be used in a multistate model set up to estimate transition probabilities. Finally we use these...