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This note shows that permanent fluctuations in the Cobweb model - though inconsistent with a rational expectations … equilibrium - can be justified as being rational when reinterpreting the model in the theory of rational beliefs …
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discuss its compatibility with two strands of Karl Popper's philosophy: his theory of knowledge and learning, and his … "rationality principle" (RP). First, we show that the REH is utterly incompatible with the former. Second, we argue that the REH …
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Overconfidence seems to be an essential aspect of human nature, and one way to study overconfidence is to consider students' forecasts of their exam grades. Part of a student's grade expectation is based on the student's previous academic achievements; what remains can be interpreted as...
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Theory of Price Movements" (Econometrica 1961). The panel consists of Michael Lovell, Robert Lucas, Dale Mortensen, Robert …
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