In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World … predictions of dramatic increases in average world temperatures over the next 92 years and serious harm resulting from the … need to forecast (1) global temperature, (2) the effects of any temperature changes, and (3) the effects of feasible …

Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF's Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA … informational value as they consistently outperform naive forecast approaches. However, we also document that there is room for … improvement: two thirds of the key macroeconomic variables that we examine are forecast inefficiently and 6 variables (growth of …

react in a timely fashion to changes in the environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other … methods of density forecast combination, such as Bayesian model averaging, optimal (static) pools, and equal weights. We show …