The global financial crisis has reignited interest in models of crisis prediction. It has also raised the question whether financial connectedness - a possible source of systemic risk - can serve as an early warning indicator of crises. In this paper we examine the ability of connectedness in...

Current estimates of global poverty vary substantially across studies. In this paper we undertake a novel sensitivity analysis to highlight the importance of methodological choices in estimating global poverty. We measure global poverty using different data sources, parametric and nonparametric...

We analyze the performance of kernel density methods applied to grouped data to estimate poverty (as applied in Sala-i-Martin, 2006, QJE). Using Monte Carlo simulations and household surveys, we find that the technique gives rise to biases in poverty estimates, the sign and magnitude of which...

We examine the causal impact of the 2002-2007 civil conflict in Côte d'Ivoire on children's health using household surveys collected before, during, and after the conflict, and information on the exact location and date of conflict events. Our identification strategy relies on exploiting both...

We study the composition of bank loan portfolios during the transition of the real sector to a knowledge economy where firms increasingly use intangible capital. Exploiting heterogeneity in bank exposure to the compositional shift from tangible to intangible capital, we show that exposed banks...

Kernel density estimation (KDE) has been prominently used to measure poverty from grouped data (Sala-i-Martin, 2006, QJE). In this paper we analyze the performance of this method. Using Monte Carlo simulations for plausible income distributions and unit data from several household surveys, we...

The hypothesis of Pareto-optimal risk-sharing is tested in a transition economy using a new dataset of a representative sample of 364 rural households from Romania. Income shocks are identified as instances of adverse weather, crop failure, animal diseases, illness, and unemployment spells....

Grouped data have been widely used to analyze the global income distribution because individual records from nationally representative household surveys are often unavailable. In this paper we evaluate the performance of nonparametric density smoothing techniques, in particular kernel density...

We analyze the growth impact of official development assistance to developing countries. Our approach is different from that of previous studies in two major ways. First, we disentangle the effects of two kinds of aid: developmental and non-developmental. Second, our specifications allow for the...