In this paper we show how the latent Markov model can be used to define different conditions in the stock market, called market-regimes. Changes in regimes can be used to detect financial crises, pinpoint the end of a crisis and predict future developments in the stock market, to some degree....

This paper evaluates the efficiency in online betting markets for European (association) football championships. The existing literature shows mixed empirical evidence regarding the degree to which betting markets are efficient. We propose a forecast-based approach to formally test the...