The collective action problem posed by holdout creditors who defect from debt restructurings is an inherent feature of finance. The market for sovereign debt presents no exception – holdout creditors have always threatened to jeopardize effective sovereign restructurings. Their refusal to go...

The extreme economic conditions exhibited during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, in conjunction with the historic government policy response, posed an enormous challenge to the accuracy of credit-loss forecasting models trained on loan performance data prior to the pandemic. In this paper, we...