After independence, the GCC countries relied heavily on foreign workers from fellow Arab countries. Thus, remittances flowed from GCC to other countries in MENA. In the 1980s-1990s labor source switched to South Asia; so did the flow of remittances. This paper examines the consequences of the...

We consider a new method to estimate causal effects when a treated unit suffers a shock or an intervention, such as a policy change, but there is not a readily available control group or counterfactual. We propose a two-step approach where in the first stage an artificial counterfactual is...

The paper addresses the topic of an overall long-term productivity slowdown in labor productivity for a panel of 25 developed countries. Besides studying individual long-term trends of single countries using filtering techniques we also test for multiple structural breakpoints in the long-term...

This study examined the structural breakdowns and co-movements of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) cryptocurrencies from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Bai-Perron test was used to determine the change in the mean and variance of the two principal actors regarding market capitalization...

This paper investigates the consistency of asymmetric interest rate past-trough (IRPT) using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag framework. Superior to the previous studies, this study exploits the historical profile of Indonesia to enrich the analysis. Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) which...

We develop methods to obtain optimal forecast under long memory in the presence of a discrete structural break based on different weighting schemes for the observations. We observe significant changes in the forecasts when long-range dependence is taken into account. Using Monte Carlo...

Empirical evidence suggests that many macroeconomic and financial time series are subject to occasional structural breaks. In this paper we present analytical results quantifying the effects of such breaks on the correlation between the forecast and the realization and on the ability to forecast...

This paper studies the behaviour of the HEGY tests for quarterly data, for seasonal autoregressive unit roots, when the time series being analysed is deterministic seasonal stationary but exhibits a change in the seasonal pattern. As a by-product, we also analyse the HEGY tests for the...