We analyze whether four market-based measures of the global systemic importance of financial institutions offer early warning signals during three financial crises. The tests based on the 2007/2008 crisis show that only one measure (∆CoVaR) consistently adds predictive power to conventional...

Measuring fund clientele by investors’ revealed usage of different asset pricing models, we show that funds with more CAPM investors perform better, all else equal. This predictability is not because the CAPM-alpha predicts future fund performance but because it reflects investor...