The statistical forecasting efficiency of new crop corn and soybean futures is the topic of frequent academic inquiry. However, few studies address the usefulness of these forecasts to economic agents? decision making. Each year Central Illinois producers are faced with the decision to plant...

The noise trader sentiment model of De Long, Shleifer, Summers, and Waldmann (1990a) is applied to futures markets. The theoretical results predict that overly optimistic (pessimistic) noise traders result in market prices that are greater (less) than fundamental value. Thus, returns can be...

The informational value of USDA corn and soybean production forecasts is investigated for the period 1971-1992. Three tests of informational content are considered: i) a relative forecast accuracy test, ii) a price reaction test, and iii) a willingness-to-pay test. Overall, the results suggest...

The study investigates price relationships and linkages among different markets using daily futures prices of corn, live hogs, crude oil, Treasury bills, and deutsche marks with two alternative time series techniques. Results suggest that price linkages consistent over time are extremely limited

Basis behavior can have a direct affect on hedging and pricing decisions. Here, ex ante basis risk for selected live hog cash markets is analyzed from 1985 through 1994. One and five month ahead econometric, time series, and naive forecasts are used to construct measures of basis risk based on...