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This paper quantifies how variation in real economic activity and inflation in the U.S. influenced the market prices of level, slope, and curvature risks in U.S. Treasury markets. We develop a novel arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model in which bond investment decisions are influenced by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013063563
these options. The signs of the estimated risk premia are consistent with theory, their economic magnitudes show that a long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012974740
We provide empirical evidence supporting the economic reasoning behind the impossibility of diversifcation benefts and the hedge attributes of cryptocurrencies remaining in force during the downside trends observed in bearish fnancial markets. We employ a spillover connectedness model driven by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014548107
[Update: Within four weeks of the original publication of this research report, Risk Magazine reported in its 28th … February 2012 issue story titled 'Goodbye VaR? Basel to Consider Other Risk Metrics': "A review of trading book capital rules …, due to be launched in March by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, will consider ditching value-at-risk as the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024329
In aftermath of the Financial Crisis, some risk management practitioners advocate wider adoption of Bayesian inference … to replace Value-at-Risk (VaR) models for minimizing risk failures (Borison & Hamm, 2010). They claim reliance of …-Bayesian and [increasingly] Bayesian – continues to be a key methodological foundation of risk management and regulation related …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013031477
Risk evaluation is a forecast, and its validity must be backtested. Probability distribution forecasts are used in this … correlation), and that the bivariate forecasts provided by a risk methodology based on historical innovations performs correctly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013405681
In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, some risk management practitioners have advocated wider adoption of … Bayesian inference to replace Value- at-Risk (VaR) models in order to minimize risk failures. Despite its limitations, the … [increasingly] Bayesian—continues to be a key methodological foundation of risk management and regulation-related risk modeling …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014263882
The Euler allocation scheme is a well-suited risk management tool that meets the three axioms of capital allocation …: diversification, continuity, and RORAC compatible. However, the Euler allocation scheme of the risk measure VaR meets the desirable … property of portfolio-invariance only under the asymptotically single-risk-factor model (ASRF) framework. Without portfolio …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013046639
This paper derives explicit expressions for the asymptotic variances of the maximum likelihood and continuously updated GMM estimators under potentially misspecified models. The proposed misspecification-robust variance estimators allow the researcher to conduct valid inference on the model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014048909
We show that in misspecified models with useless factors (for example, factors that are independent of the returns on the test assets), the standard inference procedures tend to erroneously conclude, with high probability, that these irrelevant factors are priced and the restrictions of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013026073