This paper presents a new Bayesian methodology for predicting a turning point in an economic system. The methodology utilizes information-theoretic measurements for assessing likelihood functions for a turning point. This methodology shows that the total information of a likelihood function...

The problem of modeling the revision of the information of a decision maker based on the information of the expert sources is considered. The basic model assumes that the information of the decision maker and expert sources is in the form of the probability mass functions. The modeling approach...

In an experts-assisted decision making paradigm, the information collection design becomes a strategic variable under a weak assumption that the final decision is dependent on the design used to collect information as well. As a result, the same information of the experts and the decision maker...

This paper presents a Bayesian methodology for estimating probability of a downturn in the economy and applies it to the 2007-2008 state of the U.S. economy with the focus on investigating the occurrence of a recession. In the methodological development, information theory (Kullback and Shannon)...

Since the late 1970s/early 1980s, the entire U.S. economy has gone through some structural changes. Outside of the technological changes, the Federal Reserve monetary policies have probably been the main force behind these changes. These policies, known as soft-landing policies, focused on a...