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Error-correction versus differencing in macroeconometric forecasting

Eitrheim, Øyvind; Husebø, Tore Anders; Nymoen, Ragnar - 1998

more accurate than econometric models that include levels variables, ECMs. For example, dVAR forecasts are insulated from …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011519088

Directional accuracy of experts' forecasts for inflation and unemployment rate predictions in Romania

Bratu, Mihaela - In: International journal of economic sciences and applied … 7 (2014) 2, pp. 129-137

forecasts made for Romanian by three experts in forecasting: F1, F2 and F3. All the unemployment rate forecasts over the horizon …-Timmermann test, the directional forecasts of F3 and the autumn expectations of F2 are useful and rational. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010459714

A comparative analysis of macroeconomic forecasts accuracy in Spain and Romania

Bratu, Mihaela - In: UTMS journal of economics / University of Tourism and … 6 (2015) 1, pp. 67-74

In this study a comparative analysis of the forecasts accuracy for Spain (developed country) and Romania (developing … the Spanish institutes provided more accurate forecasts, for the rest of the variables (inflation rate, private … in Romania, E2 provided more accurate forecasts. In Spain, FUNCAS offered better forecasts for GDP growth and private …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011298802

The FOMC's New Individual Economic Projections and Macroeconomic Theories

Arai, Natsuki - 2022

This paper examines whether the economic projections made by individual policymakers of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are consistent with macroeconomic facts and theories. By analyzing the projections between 2007 and 2016, this paper finds that they are consistent with Okun's law,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013293609

Projection Minimum Distance : An Estimator for Dynamic Macroeconomic Models

Jordà, Òscar; Kozicki, Sharon - 2006

This paper introduces an estimator for dynamic macroeconomic models where possibly the dynamics and the variables described therein are incomplete representations of a larger, unknown macroeconomic system. We call this estimator projection minimum distance (PMD) and show that it is consistent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014056098

Mission Implausible Iii : Measuring the Informal Sector in a Transition Economy Using Macro Methods

Hanousek, Jan; Palda, K. Filip - 2004

An easy and popular method for measuring the size of the underground economy is to use macro-data such as money demand or electricity demand to infer what the legitimate economy needs, and then to attribute the remaining consumption to the underground economy. Such inferences rely on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014071454

Estimating a Supply Block for Poland

Kierzenkowski, Rafal; Ollivaud, Patrice; Sédillot, Franck - 2008

The supply-side framework and related measures of output and unemployment gaps play a leading role in the OECD analysis of short-term conjunctural conditions and long-term determinants of growth. To allow such diagnoses for Poland, this paper develops a comprehensive supply block in accordance...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012445013

New OECD Methods for Supply-side and Medium-term Assessments : A Capital Services Approach

Beffy, Pierre-Olivier; Ollivaud, Patrice; Richardson, Pete - 2006

The OECD makes frequent use of the supply-side framework and associated measures of factor productivity, productive potential and associated output gaps in the assessment of the short-term conjunctural situation, comparative economic performance and longer-term growth determinants. This paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012445830

Error-correction versus differencing in macroeconometric forecasting

Eitrheim, Øyvind - 1998

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000978588

Beating the Random Walk : A Performance Assessment of Long-Term Interest Rate Forecasts

Butter, Frank A. G. den; Jansen, Pieter W. - 2008

models, structural economic models, expert forecasts and combinations thereof. The predictive performance of these approaches … expert forecasts. Here several methods of combination are considered: equal weights, optimized weights and weights based on …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014213445