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A novel simulation-based methodology is proposed to test the validity of a set of marginal time series models, where the dependence structure between the time series is taken "directly" from the observed data. The procedure is useful when one wants to summarize the test results for several time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010250513
In this paper we propose a test for a set of linear restrictions in a Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (VARMA) model. This test is based on the autoregressive metric, a notion of distance between two univariate ARMA models, M0 and M1, introduced by Piccolo in 1990. In particular, we show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010479050
A novel simulation-based methodology is proposed to test the validity of a set of marginal time series models, where the dependence structure between the time series is taken ‘directly' from the observed data. The procedure is useful when one wants to summarize the test results for several...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012974076
bootstrapping to estimate the true variance of the Kriging predictor. The resulting tests (with or without extrapolation or … bootstrapping) have type-I and type-II error probabilities, which we estimate through Monte Carlo experiments. To illustrate the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012869501
Bayesian decisions are observationally identical to decisions with judgment. Decisions with judgment test whether a judgmental decision is optimal and, in case of rejection, move to the closest boundary of the confidence interval, for a given confidence level. The resulting decisions condition...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013553488
A decision maker tests whether the gradient of the loss function evaluated at a judgmental decision is zero. If the test does not reject, the action is the judgmental decision. If the test rejects, the action sets the gradient equal to the boundary of the rejection region. This statistical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012418852
estimator uses parametric bootstrapping. Classic EI and bootstrapped EI are compared through various test functions, including …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014185812
In practice, simulation analysts often change only one factor at a time, and use graphical analysis of the resulting Input/Output (I/O) data. Statistical theory proves that more information is obtained when applying Design Of Experiments (DOE) and linear regression analysis. Unfortunately,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014052879
metamodel that preserves this known shape, this article uses bootstrapping (or resampling). Parametric bootstrapping assuming …-event simulation) using distribution-free bootstrapping. In stochastic simulation, the analysts should simulate each input combination … variation, so the Kriging metamodel does not need to interpolate the average outputs. Bootstrapping provides a simple method for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014203752
Distribution-free bootstrapping of the replicated responses of a given discreteevent simulation model gives … analysis than classic Kriging; i.e., bootstrapping gives lower MSE and confidence intervals with higher coverage and the same …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014166285