In this paper we propose a time-varying parameter VAR model for the housing market in the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan and the Euro Area. For these four economies, we answer the following research questions: (i) How can we evaluate the stance of monetary policy when the policy rate...

While recurring and regular variations of weather conditions are implicitly addressed by standard seasonal adjustment procedures of economic time series, extraordinary weather outcomes are not. We analyze their impact on German total industrial and construction-sector production and find modest...

This note shows in what circumstances output persistence may invert the pattern of the electoral cycle when inflation expectations are of the adaptive or rational type and the government preferences are quadratic over output and inflation.

Using two datasets containing demographically representative samples of the Dutch population, I study how lifetime experiences of aggregate labor market conditions affect personality. Three sets of findings are reported. First, experienced aggregate unemployment is negatively correlated with the...

We introduce two types of effort into an otherwise standard labor search model to examine indeterminacy and sunspot equilibria. Variable labor effort gives rise to increasing returns to hours in production. This makes workers more valuable and contributes to self-fulfilling profit expectations,...

We propose a model of a risky mortgage-lending market in which we take explicit account of heterogeneity in household borrowing conditions, by introducing two borrower types: one with a low loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, one with a high LTV ratio, calibrated to U.S. data. We use such framework to...

The Spanish regions are facing a severe recession caused by the international financial crisis that has overlapped with the correction that had been recorded in the property market, which has led to a sharp drop in economic activity and a rapid destruction process employment. In these...

We show that financial variables contribute to the forecast of GDP growth during the Great Recession, providing additional insights on both first and higher moments of the GDP growth distribution. If a recession is due to an unforeseen shock (such as the Covid-19 recession), financial variables...

This paper incorporates banks and banking panics within a conventional macroeconomic framework to analyze the dynamics of a financial crisis of the kind recently experienced. We are particularly interested in characterizing the sudden and discrete nature of the banking panics as well as the...

We conjecture that lenders' decisions to provide liquidity are affected by the extent to which they internalize negative spillovers. We show that lenders with a large share of loans outstanding in an industry provide liquidity to industries in distress when spillovers are expected to be strong,...