The dynamic analysis of corporate credit ratings is needed for predicting the risk included in a credit portfolio at different horizons. In this paper, we present the estimation of an ordered probit model with factors for the migration probabilities, with its application to aggregate data...

We consider a set of Markovian processes with Stochastic transition matrices. This specification extends the standard stochastic intensity model introduced by Cox in the two state case. Such a model is appropriate for the joint analysis of rating histories of several corporates, including the...

The aim of this paper is to explain why cross-sectional estimated migration correlations displayed in the academic and professional literature can be either not consistent, or inefficient, and to discuss alternative approaches. The analysis relies on a model with stochastic migration in which...

We study risk and return characteristics of CDOs using the market standard models. We find that fair spreads on CDO tranches are much higher than fair spreads on similarly-rated corporate bonds. Our results imply that credit ratings are not sufficient for pricing, which is surprising given their...

We study risk and return characteristics of CDOs using the market standard models. We find that fair spreads on CDO tranches are much higher than fair spreads on similarly-rated corporate bonds. Our results imply that credit ratings are not sufficient for pricing, which is surprising given their...

This paper analyzes influences on the credit standing of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), specifically the quality, diversification and single name concentration of their portfolios, and on the market practice known as Preferred Creditor Status (PCS), whereby sovereigns that default on...

This paper uses the market-standard Gaussian copula model to show that fair spreads on CDO tranches are much higher than fair spreads on similarly-rated corporate bonds. It implies that credit ratings are not sufficient for pricing, which is surprising given their central role in structured...

We develop a four-factor model intended to capture size, value, and credit rating transition patterns in excess returns for a panel of predominantly mid- and large-cap entities. Using credit transition matrices and rating histories from 48 US issuers, we provide evidence to support a...

Since 2011, Morningstar has issued Morningstar Analyst Ratings on many of the largest mutual funds in the United States. In June 2017, Morningstar launched the Morningstar Quantitative Rating™ to provide a forward‐looking rating on all mutual funds. Morningstar uses a “robo‐rater”...

This paper studies the differential credit risks embedded in the cross-section of credit spreads. Using corporate bond data from 1999 to 2018, we find that credit spreads relative to those of peers — defined as bonds with the same stated credit rating — contain reliable information about...