This paper looks at macroeconomic factors behind the current crisis. The first part looks at how global macroeconomic trends-including sustained strong growth, low real interest rates, and high saving rates-provided an environment conducive to increased financial risk-taking. The second part...

This paper simulates the macroeconomic effects of population aging in a dynamic overlapping generations model of a small open economy. The model is calibrated to data for the Czech Republic, where population aging is proceeding at a pace comparable to that in other advanced countries in Europe....

We argue that a stronger emphasis on macrofinancial risk could provide stabilization benefits. Simulations results suggest that strong monetary reactions to accelerator mechanisms that push up credit growth and asset prices could help macroeconomic stability. In addition, using a macroprudential...

We find that inflation, output and the stance of monetary policy do not typically display unusual behavior ahead of asset price busts. By contrast, credit, shares of investment in GDP, current account deficits, and asset prices typically rise, providing useful, if not perfect, leading indicators...

This study describes the Mark III version of MULTIMOD, the IMF's multi region macroeconomic model. Mark III version of MULTIMOD differs from its predecessor in several important respects. New features include a core steady-state analogue model, a new model of teh inflation-unemployment nexus,...

This book examines imbalances in seven major economies: China, France, Germany, India, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, evaluating key indicators agreed on by the G20 for identifying large imbalances, including public and private debt and private saving, and countries external...

This paper uses cross-section and panel data to examine the determinants of the current account. The empirics find a significant impact of the stage of development and demographic factors in the cross section. Estimating partial-adjustment and error-correction models using panel data, the paper...

This paper estimates empirically the changing degree of capital mobility in several Pacific Basin countries that have pursued financial liberalization in recent years. Tracing the impact of the liberalization process on the capital account, the paper also examines the implications for monetary...

This paper examines the long-run determinants of the real exchange rate from a stock-flow perspective. The empirical analysis estimates a long-run relationship between the real exchange rate, net foreign assets and other factors affecting trade flows. Using postwar data for the United States and...