This paper develops a specification test for the instrument validity conditions in the heterogeneous treatment effect model with a binary treatment and a discrete instrument. A necessary testable implication for the joint restriction of instrument exogeneity and instrument monotonicity is given...

This paper develops a specification test for instrument validity in the heterogeneous treatment effect model with a binary treatment and a discrete instrument. The strongest testable implication for instrument validity is given by the condition for nonnegativity of point-identifiable complier's...

We investigate whether alternative asset classes should be included in optimal portfolios of the most prominent investor personae in the Behavioral Finance literature, namely, the Cumulative Prospect Theory, the Markowitz and the Loss Averse types of investors. We develop a stochastic spanning...

This paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of models. An MCS is a set of models that is constructed so that it will contain the best model with a given level of confidence. The MCS is in this sense analogous to a confidence interval for a parameter. The...

In this paper, we derive an optimal test for determining break positions in Gaussian linear regressions. The procedure is an admissible rule in a multiple decision theory setting and the results are exact and valid in small samples. The analysis indicates that regression design can have a very...

In economics and other social sciences, complex processes are often represented by numerical models of reality which more or less well reflect behavioral relationships and interactions. Such attempts are the subject of a lecture course "Mathematical Theory of Democracy" by the author at the...

A novel simulation-based methodology is proposed to test the validity of a set of marginal time series models, where the dependence structure between the time series is taken "directly" from the observed data. The procedure is useful when one wants to summarize the test results for several time...

At least since [1], a broad class of multiple comparison procedures, so-called simultaneous test procedures (STPs), is established in the statistical literature. Elements of an STP are a testing family, consisting of a set of null hypotheses and corresponding test statistics, and a common...

We consider a special class of multiple testing problems, consisting of M simultaneous point hypothesis tests in local statistical experiments. Under certain structural assumptions the global hypothesis contains exactly one element v* (say), and v* is least favourable parameter configuration...

Marketers often use A/B testing as a tool to compare marketing treatments in a test stage and then deploy the better-performing treatment to the remainder of the consumer population. While these tests have traditionally been analyzed using hypothesis testing, we re-frame them as an explicit...