This paper shows that labor market search frictions do not explain fluctuations in the labor wedge per se. However, the introduction of extensive and intensive margin clarifies that measuring the MRS in terms of total hours artificially introduces procyclicality in the MRS. When the MRS is...

This paper proposes an empirical method for estimating a long-run trend for the unemployment rate that is grounded in the modern theory of unemployment. I write down an unobserved components model and identify the cyclical and trend components of the underlying unemployment flows, which in turn...

Using a unique data set and a novel identification strategy, we estimate the effect of minimum wage increases on job vacancy postings. Utilizing occupation-specific county- level vacancy data from the Conference Board's Help Wanted Online for 2005-2018, we find that state-level minimum wage...

Over the last decade, 11 states have restricted employers' access to the credit reports of job applicants. We document a significant decline in county-level vacancies after these laws were enacted: Job postings fall by 5.5 percent in affected occupations relative to exempt occupations in the...

This paper presents a flow-based methodology for real-time unemployment rate projections and shows that this approach performed considerably better at the onset of the COVID-19 recession in the spring 2020 in predicting the peak unemployment rate as well as its rapid decline over the year. It...

In this paper, we present a simple, reduced-form model of comovements in real activity and worker flows and use it to uncover the trend changes in these flows, which determine the trend in the unemployment rate. We argue that this trend rate has several key features that are reminiscent of a...

This paper shows that labor market search frictions do not explain fluctuations in the labor wedge per se. However, the introduction of extensive and intensive margin clarifies that measuring the MRS in terms of total hours artificially introduces procyclicality in the MRS. When the MRS is...

This paper proposes an empirical method for estimating a long-run trend for the unemployment rate that is grounded in the modern theory of unemployment. I write down an unobserved-components model and identify the cyclical and trend components of the underlying unemployment flows, which in turn...

This paper assesses whether labor market frictions, in the form of searching and matching, can help explain movements in the labor wedge - the gap between the marginal rate of substitution (MRS) and the marginal productivity of labor in a perfectly competitive business cycle model. Results...