Die künftige Entwicklung der Wechselkurse ist für viele wirtschaftliche Entscheidungen von besonderer Bedeutung. Gerade die jüngste Aufwertung des Euro gegenüber dem US-Dollar hat deutlich vor Augen geführt, wie negativ sich unerwartete Wechselkursänderungen auswirken können. Um Risiken...

While the IS/LM-AS/AD model is still the central tool of macroeconomic teaching in most macroeconomic textbooks, it has been criticised by several economists. Colander [1995] has demonstrated that the framework is logically inconsistent, Romer [2000] has shown that it is unable to deal with a...

The empirical performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models is more than disappointing. This dismal result is also reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat native random walk forecasts. The root for this deficient...