We study the costs of coal-fired electricity in the United States between 1882 and 2006 by decomposing it in terms of the price of coal, transportation costs, energy density, thermal efficiency, plant construction cost, interest rate, and capacity factor. The dominant determinants of costs at...

We study a simple model for the evolution of the cost (or more generally the performance) of a technology or production process. The technology can be decomposed into n components, each of which interacts with a cluster of d-1 other, dependent components. Innovation occurs through a series of...

Biofuels have been evaluated based on their greenhouse gas emissions, costs, and potential scale of production. Here we propose that feedstock supply risks should be added to the list of key metrics for evaluating the performance and scalability potential of transportation biofuels. Biofuels...

If global photovoltaics (PV) deployment grows rapidly, the required input materials need to be supplied at an increasing rate. In this paper, we quantify the effect of PV deployment levels on the scale of metals production. For example, we find that if cadmium telluride {copper indium gallium...

Energy technologies emitting differing proportions of methane and carbon dioxide vary in their relative climate impacts over time, due to the different atmospheric lifetimes of the two gases. Standard technology comparisons using the global warming potential (GWP) emissions equivalency metric do...

Photovoltaic (PV) module costs have declined rapidly over forty years but the reasons remain elusive. Here we advance a conceptual framework and quantitative method for quantifying the causes of cost changes in a technology, and apply it to PV modules. Our method begins with a cost model that...