Research has suggested that outcome feedback is less effective than other forms of feedback in promoting learning by users of decision support systems. However, if circumstances can be identified where the effectiveness of outcome feedback can be improved, this offers considerable advantages,...

The past 25 years has seen phenomenal growth of interest in judgemental approaches to forecasting and a significant change of attitude on the part of researchers to the role of judgement. While previously judgement was thought to be the enemy of accuracy, today judgement is recognised as an...

The aim of the current study is to explore the potential existence of contextual effects on sensitivity and penalty judgments. In doing so, Turkish female and male business' students ethical judgments for accounting and general business context are investigated, along with their penalty...

This paper aims to explore the potential effects of trend type, noise and forecast horizon on experts' and novices' probabilistic forecasts. The subjects made forecasts over six time horizons from simulated monthly currency series based on a random walk, with zero, constant and stochastic drift,...

A questionnaire measuring cognitive and affective representations of terror risk was developed and tested in Turkey and Israel. Participants in the study were university students from the two countries (n = 351). Four equivalent factors explained terror risk cognitions in each sample: costs,...

This paper reports the results of an experiment in stock-price forecasting that investigated the effects of feedback on various dimensions of probability forecasting accuracy. Three types of feedback were used: (1) simple outcome feedback, (2) outcome feedback presented in the task format, and...

The majority of studies of probability judgment have found that judgments tend to be overconfident and that the degree of overconfidence is greater the more difficult the task. Further, these effects have been resistant to attempts to 'debias' via feedback. We propose that under favourable...

The Empirical Probability (EP) technique is proposed as an effective support tool to assist agents operating in a global fusion of financial markets. This technique facilitates the identification and prediction of primary, secondary and tertiary trends in addition to the recognition of trend...

Judgemental forecasting of exchange rates is critical for nancial decision-making. Detailed investigations of the potential eiquest;ects of time-series characteristics on judgemental currency forecasts demand the use of simulated series where the form of the signal and probability distribution...

An experiment is reported which compares the judgmental forecasting performance of experts and novices using simulated currency series with differing trend strengths. Analyses of directional probability forecasts reveal: (1) significant effects of trend strength on all aspects of predictive...