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A Real Time Evaluation of Employment Forecasts in Switzerland
Graff, Michael - 2012
. In addition, we show that the KOF Employment Indicator as well as the Employment Indicator of the Federal Statistical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098262
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Evaluating Short-Run Forecasting Properties of the KOF Employment Indicator for Switzerland in Real Time
Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2009
-term forecasting of employment in Switzerland aggregated in the KOF Employment Indicator. We use the real time dataset in order to … evaluate the presence of predictive content of the KOF Employment Indicator both for nowcasts that are published two months …. We find that inclusion of the KOF Employment Indicator leads to substantial improvement both in in-sample as well as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013159918
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More Power for Out-Of-Sample Tests of Predictability
Pincheira, Pablo M. - 2017
In this paper we introduce a “power booster factor” for out-of-sample tests of predictability. The relevant econometric environment is one in which the econometrician wants to compare the population Mean Squared Prediction Errors (MSPE) of two models: one big nesting model, and another...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962463
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Directional Accuracy for Inflation and Unemployment Rate Predictions in Romania
Simionescu, Mihaela - 2014
The main objective of this study is to assess the usefulness and rationality of the inflation and unemployment rate forecasts made for Romanian by three experts in forecasting: F1, F2 and F3. All the unemployment rate forecasts over the horizon 2001-2013 provided by all experts do not provide...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013040574
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The Predictive Relationship Between Exchange Rate Expectations and Base Metal Prices
Pincheira, Pablo M. - 2018
In this paper we show that survey-based-expectations about the future evolution of the Chilean exchange rate have the ability to predict the returns of the six primary non-ferrous metals: aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. Predictability is also found for returns of the London Metal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012909761
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Forecasting with a mismatch-enhanced labor market matching function
Hutter, Christian; Weber, Enzo - 2014
This paper investigates the role of mismatch between job seekers and job openings for the forecasting performance of a labor market matching function. In theory, higher mismatch lowers matching efficiency which increases the risk that the vacancies cannot be filled within the usual period of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010401765
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Assessing the macroeconomic forecasting performance of boosting : evidence for the United States, the Euro Area, and Germany ; conference paper
Buchen, Teresa; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2014
The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010491104
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Directional accuracy of experts' forecasts for inflation and unemployment rate predictions in Romania
Bratu, Mihaela - In: International journal of economic sciences and applied … 7 (2014) 2, pp. 129-137
The main objective of this study is to assess the usefulness and rationality of the inflation and unemployment rate forecasts made for Romanian by three experts in forecasting: F1, F2 and F3. All the unemployment rate forecasts over the horizon 2001 - 2013 provided by all experts do not provide...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010459714
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Testing directional forecast value in the presence of serial correlation
Blaskowitz, Oliver; Herwartz, Helmut - 2008
Common approaches to test for the economic value of directional forecasts are based on the classical Chi-square test for independence, Fisher’s exact test or the Pesaran and Timmerman (1992) test for market timing. These tests are asymptotically valid for serially independent observations....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003796145
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A comparative analysis of macroeconomic forecasts accuracy in Spain and Romania
Bratu, Mihaela - In: UTMS journal of economics / University of Tourism and … 6 (2015) 1, pp. 67-74
In this study a comparative analysis of the forecasts accuracy for Spain (developed country) and Romania (developing country) was developed for the crisis period (2009 - 2013). The providers are national forecasters: Bank of Spain and FUNCAS (Spanish Savings Banks Foundation) for Spain and two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011298802