We develop a simple method for forecasting and benchmarking consumer trial of new products. First, we extend the exponential trial growth models used in controlled test markets to the context of national product launches. This provides a marketing science benchmark against which our new approach...

This research investigates changes in brand loyalty as households pass from one stage of the household life cycle to another. Analysing 45 brands in three consumer product categories in the UK, we find that the changes follow a U shape pattern. Brand loyalty declines sharply as households shift...

Theories of consumer behaviour often rely on "folk psychology". This is a common method of explanation in the social sciences, but it has some major limitations which are usually ignored in the marketing literature. To overcome these limitations, researchers must make an explicit choice between...

We report on the temporal stability of the parameters of the NBD-Dirichlet model, a well-known stochastic theory of buying behaviour. This model is widely used and recommended as a stationary market benchmark against which the dynamic effects of marketing interventions can be assessed. Yet there...