This paper evaluates the empirical validity of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) model of rational expectations. We employ an instrumental variable (IV) projection method to approximate inflation expectations, and show that the inference based on this approach can differ significantly from...

This article employs structural break tests of unknown point with nuisance parameter to test for possible break in China's business cycle volatility and identifies that the last quarter of 1995 is the significant structural break point. The paper then constructs a counterfactual analysis to...