The objective of this paper is to suggest a new predictive system for international trade, based on an unobserved component model. We employ the predictive system developed by Pastor and Stambaugh (2009), which is unlike other conventional predictive regression models. This paper derives an...

This paper characterizes the dynamic empirical properties of country export capabilities in order to inform modelling of the long-run behavior of comparative advantage. The starting point for our analysis is two strong empirical regularities in international trade that have previously been...

The current study focuses on India's impressive merchandise export performance during the pandemic, as well as the country's performance in COVID-19-related products. As per the forecasting performed by employing ARIMA model. It was found that India’s export earning in FY 2021-22 is in-fact...

This paper characterizes the dynamic empirical properties of country export capabilities in order to inform modelling of the long-run behavior of comparative advantage. The starting point for our analysis is two strong empirical regularities in international trade that have previously been...

This article investigates the role of real exchange rates on the ASEAN integration process by using a VAR model estimated for each ASEAN member with data for 1960 through 2010. Empirical results show that there is substantial heterogeneity among the ASEAN economies and demonstrate no significant...

This paper presents new econometric specifications for the Brazilian exports in the period 1995-2009 using data from the Quarterly Accounts and allowing for nonlinearities. In the cointegrating vector, there is evidence of a level shift, but the elasticities have not changed significantly. The...

This paper presents econometric estimates for the Brazilian aggregate imports over the period 1996-2010. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that uses the Brazilian quarterly national accounts with this goal in mind. Besides estimating a demand equation (canonical model), as it...

International trade is a principle transmission mechanism by which developments in one country can have repercussions in others and how it is modelled is an important part of any multi-country model. This paper describes recent estimation work carried out by the OECD, which respecifies and...

Empirical studies analysing German import demand functions traditionally report implausibly high income and relative low price elasticities. Furthermore, estimation results strongly depend on the observation period. Minor variations in the estimation period typically lead to insignificant price...