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information criteria. Then one-step ahead forecasts have been generated. It was found, that the ARs generate the best forecasts at …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011347054
information criteria. Then one-step ahead forecasts have been generated. It was found, that the ARs generate the best forecasts at … ; forecasts ; forecast evaluation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009736654
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003819837
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003492413
This paper develops a set of time series models to provide short-term forecasts (6 to 18 months ahead) of international … trade both at the global level and for selected regions. Our results compare favourably to other forecasts, notably by the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012733678
A basic assumption of the gravity equation of international trade is that increasing trade costs lower exports. But intuition and theory imply that a high export volume lowers bilateral trade costs as well, because a fixed cost intensive trade sector probably bears lower average costs with more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014198178
The advantages of using gravity approach for modeling transition processes in foreign trade are the ability of gravity models to explain international trade pattern under the conditions of comparatively little amount of data and validity of theoretical background of the model to the economies in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014078867
A basic assumption of the gravity equation of international trade is that increasing trade costs lower exports. Butintuition and theory imply that a high export volume lowers bilateral trade costs as well, because a fixed cost intensivetrade sector probably bears lower average costs with more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003941170
The paper proposes a modelling approach for euro area goods and services trade volumes and prices on the basis of a break-down of trade data into their intra- and extra-area components. Using the evidence from the newly estimated trade equations, the paper gives new insights into two important...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317054
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008732196