This paper studies the signalling effect of the consumption-wealth ratio (cay) on German stock returns via vector error correction models (VECMs). The effect of cay on U.S. stock returns has been recently confirmed by Lettau and Ludvigson with a two-stage method. In this paper, performances of...

We investigate for 26 OECD economies whether their current account imbalances to GDP are driven by stochastic trends. Regarding bounded stationarity as the more natural counterpart of sustainability, results from Phillips-Perron tests for unit root and bounded unit root processes are contrasted....

The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle has triggered a broad range of econometric specifications to investigate saving-investment (SI) relations. In this article, we attempt to determine a family of econometric models that is most suitable in explaining actual ratios of domestic investment to GDP via...

To infer on functional dependence of regression parameters, a new, factor based bootstrap approach is introduced that is robust under various forms of heteroskedastic error terms. Modeling the functional coefficient parametrically, the bootstrap approximation of an F-statistic is shown to hold...

This paper investigates whether using natural logarithms (logs) of price indices for forecasting inflation rates is preferable to employing the original series. Univariate forecasts for annual inflation rates for a number of European countries and the USA based on monthly seasonal consumer price...

What does the saving-investment (SI) relation really measure and how should the SI relation be measured? These are two of the most discussed issues triggered by the so called Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Based on panel data we introduce a new variant of functional coefficient models that allows to...